First View - weekly economic commentary

First View is a weekly report where our economists review key economic developments and what they may mean for the New Zealand economy.

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December 2023

First view 2023

November

27 November 2023 - It’s the final countdown. The RBNZ’s final cash rate decision for 2023 lies ahead.

20 November 2023 - Pūteketeke, doves, hawks, and kiwi. The economic skyline from a bird’s eye view.

13 November 2023 - The Fed faces uncertainty and the RBA hikes. But for the RBNZ, the stars have aligned.

6 November 2023 - Most central banks seem to be finished hiking. The same could be said here. Rates have fallen.

October

30 October 2023 - What happens when growing labour supply meets weakening demand?

24 October 2023 - Inflation rates have improved, to the core. But the spike in oil, with risk of a greater surge, worries us.

16 October 2023 - The vote for ‘change’ should boost confidence. But it’s the inflation print that’s now in focus.

9 October 2023 - We need inflation to drop to keep central banks on the side lines. It will happen. Will it to happen.

2 October 2023 - A hawkish hold with a ‘higher-for-longer’ mantra. But forecasters foresee cuts (not hikes).

September

25 September 2023 - The recession we never had, could turn into the recession we had to have. The NZD will soften.

18 September 2023 - It's payback time. Economic growth will bounce, before further falls.

11 September 2023 - Weaker Government revenue, softer activity across the regions, but a bounce interest rates.

4 September 2023 - A softening in economic data weakens the case for more tightening.

August

28 August 2023 - Central banks remain ready to do more, as the data softens and crumbles around them.

21 August 2023 - Interest rates will remain high and dry, for now. We still expect rate cuts to commence next year.

14 August 2023 - The RBNZ will make their interest rate decision. We should see nothing. And that’s the good news.

7 August 2023 - As the labour market loosens, wage pressure eases, and inflation expectations fall.

July

31 July 2023 - Filling the void: migrant workers are meeting demand. Businesses are finding labour.

24 July 2023 - Inflation rates are moving in the right direction, slowly.

17 July 2023 - It’s all about inflation. And recessions kill inflation. The hard mahi continues.

10 July 2023 - Watch, without worry, and wait. The RBNZ will keep the cash rate unchanged. Govt revenue falls short.

3 July 2023 - The RBNZ has called time on rate hikes. And businesses have breathed a sigh of relief.

June

26 June 2023 - There are conflicting forces at play, with softening demand, persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.

19 June 2023 - There’s bad news and there’s good news. Activity is very weak, but housing will bounce back.

12 June 2023 - We get the latest read on the Kiwi economy this week, following a spectacular spike in migration.

6 June 2023 - Our trading partner growth is slowing. And the risks are to the downside.

May

29 May 2023 - Closing the chapter on rate hikes. The RBNZ is now on hold.

22 May 2023 - Surging migration and Government spending put upward pressure on interest rates.

15 May 2023 - The “no frills” budget must balance a massive rebuild and weaker revenue.

8 May 2023 - It was a busy week, in what will be a very busy month. The end of rate hikes is near.

1 May 2023 - It’s an action-packed week ahead. Central banks take centre stage, with loads of data to digest.

April

24 April 2023 - It was a pleasant surprise. Inflation has finally eased, and has much further to go.

17 April 2023 - Inflation is in focus, and the outlook is mixed and muddied by weather events.

11 April 2023 - The RBNZ is sticking to its pre-set path.

3 April 2023 - Yet another interest rate rise. But the end is near.

March

27 March 2023 - Inflation is still public enemy No. 1. But rate hikes are being felt throughout the system.

20 March 2023 - A chaotic week in financial markets gives “March Madness” a whole new meaning.

13 March 2023 - Markets are convulsing with mixed signals from central banks and a bank failure in the US.

6 March 2023 - The reacceleration in global inflation has seen interest rates regain lost ground.

February

27 February 2023 - The Government steps in to assist, as the RBNZ delivered another rate hike – with more to come.

20 February 2023 - The RBNZ takes centre stage this week. Current circumstances warrant caution.

13 February 2023 - Cyclone Gabrielle will add to the cost of recent weather-related damage at the top of NZ.

7 February 2023 - Devastating floods force an inflationary rebuild. Global disinflation will more than offset.

January

30 January 2023 - The labour market is still red hot but should cool over 2023.

23 January 2023 - Inflation is in focus, and pressures are starting to ease. Fewer interest rate hikes may be needed.

16 January 2023 - Inflation pressures are easing offshore. And there’s a risk of a recession. Interest rates are falling back.

First view 2022
December

19 December 2022 - A strong end to 2022. But 2023 will be a different story entirely. A recession is on the horizon.

12 December 2022 - It’s a busy end to a busy year. We get an update on economic growth and Government spend.

5 December 2022 - The RBNZ’s willingness to hike until it hurts, contrasts with other central banks. The NZD is higher.

November

28 November 2022 - The RBNZ is hell-bent on hiking rates to hurt households and induce a recession.

21 November 2022 - It’s a coin toss. The RBNZ is set to deliver a 75bp hike, although some say 50.

14 November 2022 - US inflation has peaked, but it's what's down the other side that has us worried. Global growth.

7 November 2022 - The outlook is awkward, and we must capture climate related risks as we think longer term.

October

31 October 2022 - Wages are rising as firms are still trying to find the right workers… Labour is our largest constraint.

25 October 2022 - Painfully persistent inflation is forcing central banks to hike interest rates even higher. It hurts…

17 October 2022 - Tuesday’s inflation report will dominate the headlines. And it’s going to be uncomfortable.

10 October 2022 - The divergence between Australian and New Zealand monetary policy grows wider.

3 October 2022 - Financial markets remain volatile, as central banks tighten. We look to business confidence.

September

27 September 2022 - A blitz of central bank rate hikes causes some awkward reactions in financial markets.

19 September 2022 - Tourism is recovering, as household consumption and business investment declines.

12 September 2022 - No need to be technical. The Kiwi economy likely bounced back in the June quarter.

5 September 2022 - Central banks confront rampant inflation. And Kiwi business confidence improves.

August

29 August 2022 - Interest rates may have peaked. And the outlook for housing is better balanced.

22 August 2022 - The RBNZ is set to deliver another 100bps to 4%.

15 August 2022 - The RBNZ is set to deliver another 50bp hike to 3%.

8 August 2022 - We look into the labour market, the performance across regions, and financial literacy.

1 August 2022 - Wages are rising as staff are a struggle for businesses to find.

July

25 July 2022 - The fight against inflation is heating up, and growth expectations are being slashed.

11 July 2022 - Another 50bp rate hike from the RBNZ is likely.

4 July 2022 - it's now a crisis of confidence

June

27 June 2022 - Recession fears dominate financial markets. Volatility is high.

20 June 2022 - Central banks continue to push interest rates higher in a battle against inflation.

13 June 2022 - It’s all about growth, and ours is slowing.

7 June 2022 - Interest rate rises restrict growth and raise the risk of recession.

May

30 May 2022 - The RBNZ will huff and puff and blow the house down.

23 May 2022 - The cost-of-living is about to get costlier with interest rates about to rise (again).

16 May 2022 - The budget is in focus as the outlook worsens.

9 May 2022 - Central banks remain in focus, as they face into rising inflation.

April

11 April 2022 - Will the RBNZ pull out the inflation busting sledgehammer? Not with confidence this fragile…

4 April 2022 - Inflation continues to push higher, globally. Kiwi look to head overseas on OE.

March

28 March 2022 - Net migration could be negative, as more Kiwi departures outweigh arrivals.

21 March 2022 - The Kiwi economy posted a strong rebound, but the outlook has softened.

14 March 2022 - The Kiwi economy will post a strong rebound, but the outlook has softened.

7 March 2022 - The war in Ukraine is fast being felt around the globe, even a world away in NZ.

February

28 February 2022 - Under siege, RBNZ throws more into the fight against inflation... interest rates remain on the rise.

21 February 2022 - Cash rate up, balance sheet down. It’s time for the RBNZ to enter phase 2 of tightening…

14 February 2022 - Central banks are waking up to rising inflation.

8 February 2022 - We’re expecting inflation expectations to rise.

January

31 January 2022 - Inflation is outstripping wage growth, putting the squeeze on households’ wallets.

24 January 2022 - I see red.

17 January 2022 - Higher inflation = higher interest rates.

First view 2021
December

20 December 2021 - 2021 will go down as the year of resilience.

13 December 2021 - Upward revisions will be the theme of the week, as we’ll see strong GDP numbers and fiscal accounts.

6 December 2021 - Show me the money! Labour markets are tightening, and wages are rising.

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