Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep45

Published on 26 August 2025

After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses.

Jarrod_Kerr_Profile-500x500-v2

Jarrod Kerr

Chief Economist
KB_MaryJo_Profile_500x500

Mary Jo Vergara

Senior Economist
KB_SabrinaDelgado_Profile_500x500

Sabrina Delgado

Economist

Game on! The RBNZ signals 2.5%

Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted.

Kiwibank Week 45 Thumbnail opt2
Listen on Spotify Listen on Apple

TAGS

All content is general commentary, research and information only and isn’t financial or investment advice. This information doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and its contents shouldn’t be relied on or used as a basis for entering into any products described in it. The views expressed are those of the authors and are based on information reasonably believed but not warranted to be or remain correct. Any views or information, while given in good faith, aren’t necessarily the views of Kiwibank Limited and are given with an express disclaimer of responsibility. Except where contrary to law, Kiwibank and its related entities aren’t liable for the information and no right of action shall arise or can be taken against any of the authors, Kiwibank Limited or its employees either directly or indirectly as a result of any views expressed from this information.

You may also be interested in

Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep44

The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia.

Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep43

We’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not for the steeper-than-expected slide in the participation rate. Meanwhile, details under the headline rate portray an even weaker reality.

Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep42

It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in.

Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep41

This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?

Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep40

Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool.

See all