Markets, Mystics & Mayhem podcast: Ep39

Published on 16 July 2025

After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the end of the cutting cycle? Or is it really just a pause? And why pause now? What will influence the August decision?... We’re diving into all the questions you might have following last week’s decision.

RBNZ takes a breather. What happens next?

Policymakers around the globe are still grappling with trade tariffs and the inflationary implications. High uncertainty has forced central banks, from Wellington to Washington, into a wait and see mode. But the RBNZ's bias, rightly remains tilted toward further easing.

We continue to advocate for a stimulatory (helpful) cash rate of 2.5%. From our stalled housing market recovery, to plummeting net migration and contracting manufacturing activity, signs of weakness are clear. Weakness, which is in itself, disinflationary.

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