The month of May saw a seasonally adjusted 1,530 net inflow of permanent and long-term migrants. It's greater than the 1,090 net gain in April. But over the year, net migration has fallen to 14,809, the lowest annual net inflow since November 2022. That’s around 120k below the record-breaking peak in October 2023. And migration is well below the historical average of a 20k net gain. The cooldown helps explain the weakness in the housing market and consumer demand. The net inflow may drop below 14k, because net inflows have averaged just 1,140 per month over the last three months.
We’re still seeing a record number of Kiwi fleeing the nest, at 71.2k departures in the year to May 2025. And with Kiwi arrivals sitting below long-term averages, the net outflow remains at record-highs. No surprises, Australia has been the biggest beneficiary. As Stats NZ estimates, of the 69,300 migrant departures of NZ citizens to all countries in 2024, 58% were to Australia. Net flow of non-NZ citizens remains large at 61k, but has continued to slow, and is down 100k from the peak.
All content is general commentary, research and information only and isn’t financial or investment advice. This information doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and its contents shouldn’t be relied on or used as a basis for entering into any products described in it. The views expressed are those of the authors and are based on information reasonably believed but not warranted to be or remain correct. Any views or information, while given in good faith, aren’t necessarily the views of Kiwibank Limited and are given with an express disclaimer of responsibility. Except where contrary to law, Kiwibank and its related entities aren’t liable for the information and no right of action shall arise or can be taken against any of the authors, Kiwibank Limited or its employees either directly or indirectly as a result of any views expressed from this information.
