Weaker migration continues to weigh on the Kiwi economy with less demand being added overall. And data from Stats NZ last week once again showed net migration levels remaining at around half of their long-term averages. In the year to July 2025, we saw a net gain of just 13,100, as arrivals stayed subdued and departures remained elevated.
Focusing on Kiwi alone, two annual records were broken once again. The year to July 2025 saw a record net migration loss of 47,600 Kiwi - exceeding last month’s record outflow of 47,300- driven by a new high of 73,400 Kiwi departures.
Downward revisions to historical data also revealed weaker migration earlier in the year. January, for instance, was revised to show a seasonally adjusted net outflow of 510—marking the first monthly net outflow since mid-2022.
That said, we seem to be progressing away from the lows of the current migration cycle. The same revisions showed slightly stronger migration in recent months, with arrivals picking up and departures easing from their peak. And put together, the rolling 3-month average has started to tread higher. A further pick up would be welcome to help breathe some life back into the housing market and boost consumer demand. Though overall net migration levels are likely to remain subdued until we have a recovery in the labour market. Or at least an improvement in relative performance with the Aussie labour market given that 60% of Kiwi departures in the year to December 2024 headed over to the land down under.
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