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First View is a weekly report where our economists review key economic developments and what they may mean for the New Zealand economy.
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17 January 2022 - Higher inflation = higher interest rates.
20 December 2021 - 2021 will go down as the year of resilience.
13 December 2021 - Upward revisions will be the theme of the week, as we’ll see strong GDP numbers and fiscal accounts.
6 December 2021 - Show me the money! Labour markets are tightening, and wages are rising.
29 November 2021 - Credit conditions are tightening, as Auckland is opening, and omicron rocks financial markets.
22 November 2021 - The RBNZ will hike the cash rate this week, and signal many more to come.
15 November 2021 - Our focus turns to the RBNZ and the rate hikes that are coming.
8 November 2021 - Unlike other central banks, the RBNZ doesn't have the luxury of time on its side.
1 November 2021 - The labour market is in focus this week. Wages are rising…
26 October 2021 - Persistent inflation will lift interest rates higher.
11 October 2021 - Turn the page: a new chapter in monetary policy.
4 October 2021 - Despite Delta, the RBNZ is set to commence lifting interest rates, for the first time in 7 years.
27 September - Interest rates are rising, globally, as ‘hawkish’ central banks look to remove monetary stimulus.
20 September 2021 - All eyes turn to the RBNZ decision in early October. A hike is expected, but will we get a 50bp?
13 September 2021 - We ran into this lockdown, with strong momentum. And we’ll bounce back, as we did once before.
6 September 2021 - The US jobs market throws up a big miss, while NZ’s appears on target to leave lockdown.
30 August 2021 - The US Fed is a year behind the RBNZ. The Kiwi dollar should appreciate into year end.
23 August 2021 - Locked down but not out. The economy is in a much better position to absorb the shock.
16 August 2021 - From firmly on hold to hastened to hike. A rapid recovery justifies the removal of stimulus.
9 August 2021 - NZ keeps standing out on the world stage. The RBNZ to beat all other central banks and start hiking interest rates.
2 August 2021 - Competition among firms for labour heats up, and so too has our regional heat map.
26 July 2021 - What’s temporary and what’s structural when it comes to inflation and employment?
19 July 2021 - Price rises are quickly picking up pace. The RBNZ must hike before inflation boils over.
12 July 2021 - The Kiwi Inflation rate may hit 3%. The RBNZ’s mandates are met, at least temporarily.
5 July 2021 - The global economy is healing from covid, but inflation and a rush to lock in low interest rates threatens rising mortgage rates.
28 June 2021 - Covid calls in once again, but it appears to have only been a fleeting visit.
21 June 2021 - A belter of a GDP number wakes up markets to OCR hikes next year.
14 June 2021 - Kiwi purchasing power at record highs, as we (likely) avoid a double dip recession.
7 June 2021 - Central banks think about thinking about responding to reflation.
31 May 2021 - Return of the track. We hoped it would be back. Kiwi dollar given a jetpack.
24 May 2021 - Fiscal prudence on full display and partially punchy pricing ahead of the RBNZ's May meeting.
17 May - Crikey! Those Aussies know how to spend it.
10 May 2021 - NZ’s labour market, boldly going where others have yet to return.
27 April 2021 - Inflation could Rise Up above target. But price pressures will eventually Fade Away.
21 April 2021 - Only the beginning. Headline inflation will spike, but core inflation remains subdued.
12 April 2021 - Policy settings are unlikely to change. The RBNZ’s review to be a stepping stone to May.
6 April 2021 - A concerted effort to vaccinate should ensure no one bursts our travel bubble.
29 March 2021 - Tackling housing supply with demand measures.
22 March 2021 - Creating one bubble and avoiding another.
15 March 2021 - Turbulence before take-off, but the Kiwi economy is ultimately on a recovery trajectory.
8 March 2021 - Good news outweighs bad, and rates are rising.
1 March 2021 - Another lockdown, another RBNZ statement, and another market tantrum.
22 February 2021 - Regulators, mount up.
15 February 2021 - Here we go again. Covid lockdowns and reflation trades consume headlines.
9 February 2021 - We're watching the vaccine roll-out, as our economy heals remarkably well.
1 February 2021 - That's not yours it's mine.
25 January 2021 - We’re growing in confidence.
18 January 2021 - Like Yin and Yang, the NZ and global economy.